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Warum die Zinsen tief bleiben

«Were the FOMC to delay the start of policy normalization for too long, we would likely end up having to tighten policy relatively abruptly at some point to keep the economy from overheating and inflation from significantly overshooting our objective. Such an abrupt tightening could increase the risk of pushing the economy into recession.»

«As the probability of hitting the zero lower bound increases, the asymmetry in policy flexibility becomes more pronounced. Because we have more space to respond by raising rates if inflationary forces accelerate than by cutting rates if disinflationary forces emerge, when nominal neutral rates are likely to be lower on average, we should be cautious about raising rates, do so gradually, and carefully assess the effects on economic and financial conditions as we go.»

«As I have often noted, the importance of our initial increase in the target range for the federal funds rate should not be overstated: Even after today’s increase, the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting further improvement in labor market conditions and a return to 2 percent inflation. As we indicated in our statement, the Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant only gradual increases in the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. This expectation is consistent with the view that the neutral nominal federal funds rate– defined as the value of the federal funds rate that would be neither expansionary nor contractionary if the economy were operating near potential – is currently low by historical standards and is likely to rise only gradually over time.»